NFL Divisional Playoffs

I feel pretty good about going 3-1 last week.  The Falcons played a terrible game against the Cardinals, so what are you going to do.  I had a pretty solid read on the other games.  I said the Chargers-Colts would come down to the last possession (it did), I said the Ravens-Dolphins could get ugly (it did), and I said that Jackson couldn’t handle the Eagle’s blitz packages (he couldn’t.) But, the Wild Card week is done and now it’s time to move to the Divisional Round.

 

TITANS (-2.5) vs. Ravens

My take-away from the Ravens victory over the Dolphins was how the Ravens offense was not very impressive.  Did you know that the Dolphins had the 15^th best defense during the regular season?  And against that mediocre defense, and with 4 turnovers, the offense only scored 20 points.  (1 turnover was returned by the defense for a TD.)  And if you watched the game, the Ravens didn’t really move the ball smoothly.  It was not an offense to inspire confidence.

 

Now the Ravens are back on the road against the leagues 7^th ranked defense.  I’m not sure they’ll score 10 points.  Of course, the Ravens have their #2 defense with them, and that’s what makes this one a tough call. Flacco and company can score 7, the defense can score 7, and they can win this game 14-10 without a problem.  This one’s tight.  In the end, I’m going to take the team who is at home, coming off the bye week, with a more experienced quarterback.

Pick:  Titans

 

PANTHERS (-9.5) vs. Cardinals

Not many people thought the woeful Cards would even be around this weekend, and nobody thinks they can touch the Panthers.  The Cards played terrible on the East Coast this season, and one of the star players is banged up on questionable.    To top it off, the high flying offense is going to face a kickoff temperature in the 40s and possible rain.  It looks like an impossible task. 

 

And it may be.  But I just can’t lay 9.5 points here.   I could easily see a scenario where the Panthers dominate the whole game but the Cards get a junk TD late to cut the margin of victory to 9.  It’s hard to justify laying almost 10 points during the regular season.  In the playoffs, it’s ever harder.  I think the Panthers likely win the game, but I’m taking the points.

Pick:  Cardinals

 

GIANTS (-4.5) vs. Eagles

Everybody is jumping back on the Eagles bandwagon, but let’s not forget that, even with a pick-6 last week, the Eagles needed a 70 yard screen play to put away the not-very-good Vikings.  The Giants B-team lost to the Vikings on a last second field goal just two weeks ago.  I fear the junk TD here,  or a close game the Giants win by 3, especially considering the kick-off forecast of 50% chance of snow and 31 degrees.  But I think the Giants are the better team.

Pick:  Giants

 

STEELERS (-6) vs. Chargers

I’ve gone on record all year saying that don’t think the Steelers are legit.  There is just something about them that looks off.  Been doesn’t look sharp, Willie Parkers looks a step slow, and that O-line looks weaker than normal.  But, they managed to win more than they lost, won the North and a first round bye, so that was an increasingly hard argument to make. 

 

Big Ben has laid some stink bombs this season, most notably against the Colts.  He’s been banged up all year and is coming off a concussion so bad he had to wheeled off the field.  Now he’s going to suit up against a defense that is suddenly full of confidence after taking the arena league-like Colt offense to the woodshed.  Put all that together, and it’s just not a pretty picture.  Combine that with a Chargers team that has looked very solid down the stretch and I think 6 is too many points here.  If it’s a straight pick ‘em, I’m thinking harder.  If you give me 6, I’m taking the Chargers.  I don’t think there too much separating these two teams at this point.

 

Pick:  Chargers

 

Last Week:  3-1

Nothing Noble about Overpaying

As media outlets discuss the situation of the Big 3 automakers in Detroit, one argument I’ve hear offered up is that we should help them because they have paid good wages with good benefits to their employees, and the automakers shouldn’t be punished for taking care of their employees.  This argument is so colossally stupid that I don’t know how anybody with a 10^th grade education can make it with a straight face.

First of all, the Detroit automakers are suffering for several reasons, and over paying labor is only one of them.  I’d say that not adjusting the a changing marketplace and making crappy cars that screwed people out of thousands of maintenance dollars are probably two bigger reasons they are suffering.  But the wage argument has the underlying assumption that it is somehow noble to overpay your employees, as if management, and not a labor market, determines wages. 

At its core, this is not hard problem to understand.  Basically the Big 3 cannot sell enough or charge enough to cover their expenses, and the big chunk of those expenses are wages, some of which top $70 per hour for line employees.  Because of the overpayment and overpromises, these three companies are having a long, drawn-out death.  It’s a death that is going to leave thousands of people without work, and without any paycheck or health coverage.  Thousands of people are going on the dole to be supported by everybody’s taxes.  Still think it’s noble?  If they had stood up to the union, and adjusted their wages and benefits years ago, they would be in a much better place today.

Which brings me to a point that nobody discusses;  America’s two-faced approach to capitalism.  We love the variety of choices and low prices competition offers us.  But then we turn around and badmouth the cost and wage controls that are necessary to compete in a competitive marketplace.   We hate the fact that English isn’t the first language of cashier are McDonald’s, but we love that a McMuffin costs $1.50.  We say “ship those Mexicans home,” but we love that they will mow our lawns for $20 in 100 degree heat.  We cry that our manufacturing jobs go overseas as we brag about buying two end tables for $30 at Target.  You can’t have one without the other.  If McDonald’s suddenly decided that they were going to pay everybody $50K per year, they’d have to charge $8 for a McMuffin.  Are you going to buy that the $8 McMuffin?  Me neither. 

Remember:  a company that behaves in a non-competitive manor is just sowing the seeds of its own demise.  And then nobody gets paid. 

What Am I Missing?

I’m the first admit I’m not the sharpest tool in the shed, but I feel like I’m missing something when I read about the current recession.   I know things are economically bad, but I keep hearing about Armageddon and actual numbers don’t seem to back that up.   It reminds me of when it snows 4 inches and news stations freak out and talk about how the weather has created a dangerous or life-threatening situation.  It’s four inches of snow, not biological warfare. 

 

Again, I’m not an business expert, but let me share how my bachelor degree holding mind reads the following article from CNN Money:

 

Title:  “Stores to tell how horrible holiday was”

 

Oh, man.  Horrible is a pretty powerful word.

 

“Most of the 35 retailers whose same-store sales are tracked by Thomson Reuters are expected to report monthly declines.”

 

Yeah, okay.  That’s not really a surprise to me.  I’m assuming that same-stores sales mean same store revenue for the December 2007 and 2008.  It was well publicized that stores were offering massive discounts to lure in buyers.  Given the discounts, I’m guessing if people just went shopping for the same kind of items they bought in December 2007, they would spend less money.  Hence revenue should be lower.  Right? 

 

“Retailers have struggled with slumping sales all year and the situation worsened as the economy weakened further heading into the fourth quarter.”

 

You know, I made this point a few blog posts ago, but I think it merits mention again.  Every Christmas I can remember has had numerous retailers missing expected sales numbers.  They’ve been missing them for years.  Maybe there is something other than the bad economy going on here.  Using myself as an example, I avoid the mall like the plague, and doubly so during the holidays.  The lines, the pushy people, trying to find a place to park – it’s all the fun of the airport the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.  If I have not managed to negotiate some sort of “no gift” agreement with you, you are likely getting a gift card that I purchased on the interwebs.  I set foot in a mall as an absolute last resort.  But enough about me.

 

“Sales tracker Thomson Reuters expects December same-store sales for the 35 retailers it tracks will have dropped 1% for the month. That would be weaker than the 0.5% gain logged a year ago.”

 

Um…okay.  So if I read this correctly, the average retailer of the 35 tracked had 1% lower revenue than December, 2007.  I understand that healthy businesses grow, and costs tend to increase, but, if I understand this correctly, a store that sold $2M in December, 2007 sold $1.98M last month.  I’m actually surprised that decrease isn’t much lower, especially considering the deals everybody offered.

 

“Although sellers slashed clothing prices by as much as 80% to lift pre-Christmas store traffic and sales, it still wasn’t enough to draw out reluctant shoppers.”

 

Ok, I’m no mathmagician, but if I’m selling widgets that sold last year for $100 for $20, and only take a 1% hit on revenue, I’d say I didn’t a pretty good job of hitting the price point necessary to hit my revenue numbers.  At those prices, you basically sold just under 5 times more product than you did a year ago.

“We’re looking at companies who still have lots of cash and have reduced their inventory as opposed to those with the best holiday sales,” Beder said.”

 

So you are saying that companies that operate more efficiently weather economic slow-downs better than those who don’t .  Makes sense to me.

 

“Having appealing merchandise is important,” he said. “Consumer spending hasn’t died, consumers are just spending less. So the winners are also whoever is taking more market share amid smaller levels of purchases.”

 

AH-HA.  That makes sense.  People are a little thriftier, but they are still buying clothes, so you better have clothes people want.  I can see that.

 

The article goes on to say Walmart actually saw a 2.8% increase in sales, likely because people trimmed holiday spending and were looking for bargains. 

Again, I’m not trying to say the economy isn’t down.  It is.  But two things stand out to me:

·         I’m not sure those number add up to “horrible” based on my novice knowledge.

·         Maybe there are some other factors going on here.  Maybe some of these guys just have crappy clothes, or less and less people are going to the mall to buy.  Maybe the interwebs are stagnating their sales.  They’ve been missing Christmas sales expectations long before AIG tanked. 

Wildcard Weekend

Before I get to my NFL Year in Review and my Wildcard Weekend picks, here are a couple of thoughts on some recent news items.

-          Guess we missed our chance to sock those windfall taxes to the oil companies.  Everybody was quick slam the oil companies when gas was $4 per gallon.  If they were responsible for the price of gas, shouldn’t we thank them for lowering gas to 4 year lows?

 

-          Do retailers ever meet or exceed their expectations for Christmas sales?  I’ve been following business for roughly 10 years, and every single year, retailers fall short of expectations.  Yet the malls seem as crowded as ever.  People’s appetite for crap seems to grow.  Maybe retailers need to readjust their expectations.

 

-          Sure am glad we just flushed a $20B first installment on the Detroit automakers.  The difference between the banks and the automakers is that banks have solid business model but made a poor investment choice (mortgage backed securities), partially due to the federal government creations of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.  The Detroit automakers have a poor business model.  They’ve been on the brink of bankruptcy for years.  Their labor costs are way too high.  They made crappy cars for too long.  They’ve been living on borrowed time.  Mark these words – this is just payment #1 of many.  We would have been better off giving $8,000 tax free to the 2.4M people who have jobs supported by Detroit, tell them to get some job retraining, and be done with it. 

 

Now to my favorite topic:  the NFL.  I finished strong, going 12-3-1 in Week #17.  That means for the season, I went 131-117-7 for the games I picked.  So, if I bet $20 on every game, and paid standard Vegas juice, my year’s worth of hard work would have netted me $41.58.  So I got that going for me, which is nice.

 

Now let’s see how my bold preseason predictions panned out.  (You can read them here:  http://thinkinglikemike.wordpress.com/2008/09/04/bold-preseason-nfl-predictions/)

1.       The Cowboys will struggle to get a Wild Card Spot.  I’m taking full credit for this prediction.  The curse of “Hard Knocks” strikes again, and nobody is talking about it. 

2.       The Jags will unseat the Colts and win the AFC South.  Whoops. 

3.       The Bengals will be terrible, and Marvin Lewis will get fired.  I’m going to take 75% credit for that one;  the Bengals were terrible, and I think Marvin Lewis wishes he could get fired. 

4.       The Seahawks will win the NFC West.  Whoops.

5.       Aaron Rodgers will be just fine. I’m going to take full credit for this one because he was just fine.  The Packers problems were primarily defensive.  As for Packers management getting hailed for their decision making, that didn’t happen, but they haven’t been slammed either.  Brett Farve looked mighty old coming down the stretch.   On a related note, I feel the same way about Brett Farve as I feel about Christmas;  I don’t have a problem with him/it, I just get so tired of having it crammed down my throat week in and week out.

 

As for my division winner and wild cards:

AFC East:  Patriots – WRONG

AFC South:  Jaguars – WRONG

AFC North:  Steelers – RIGHT

AFC West:  Chargers – RIGHT

AFC Wild Card #1:  Colts – RIGHT

AFC Wild Card #2:  Broncos – WRONG

.500 in the AFC – not too bad.

 

NFC East:  Eagles – WRONG

NFC South:  Saints – WRONG

NFC North:  Packers – WRONG

NFC West:  Seahawks – WRONG

NFC Wild Card #1:  Vikings – WRONG

NFC Wild Card #2:  Cowboys – WRONG

 

And then there’s this:

AFC Champions:  Patriots

NFC Champions:  Packers

Super Bowl Champion:  Patriots

 

All wrong.    But I’ll always have my fictitious $41, and nobody can ever take that away from me. 

 

Falcons (-2) vs. CARDINALS

Okay, 4 road favorites are not covering this weekend.  This much we know.  But I think this road favorite gets the job done.  Normally, I’d be hesitant to pick a rookie QB on the road, but to say the Cardinals limped into the playoffs would be kind.  And Matt Ryan hasn’t looked like a rookie much this season.  The Falcons played tough and played well in football’s toughest division all year, and was a win away from sitting on the couch this weekend.   Go with momentum.  Go with the better team.

 

Pick:  Falcons

 

Colts (-1) vs. CHARGERS

Everybody loves the Colts, and rightfully so.  They have won 8 straight.  But let’s look inside those 8 straight.  They had one legit big win, over the Patriots at home.  They had two pretty good wins, over decent teams, the Texans and the last second win over the Chargers.   Big Ben gift wrapped the win over the Steelers.  The other four were over the Browns, Bengals, Lions, and Jags.  If somebody asked you to pick these games, you’d probably pick the Colts to at least go 6-2.  So, I think the Colts are a little overrated going into this game.   

 

This is an intriguing game.  Neither team is great.  Both teams give up too many points.  This one could be a track meet.  Honestly, I think it’s going to come down to who gets the ball last.  And since I said not all road favorites are winning, here’s my upset.  

 

Pick:  Chargers

 

Ravens (-3) vs. DOLPHINS

The Ravens have looked very impressive all year.  They are 7-2 in the last 9 weeks, with loses to the Giants (it was a bad one), and a squeaker to the Steelers.  The Dolphins have won 6 of their last 7, but they are squeaking by against the likes of the Seahawks and Raiders.  I think the Ravens win this one in a blowout. 

 

Pick:  Ravens

 

Eagles (-3) vs. VIKINGS

The Eagles were left for dead.  McNabb was going to get run out of town.  Andy Reid was going to get fired.   Now – they are everybody’s NFC sleeper.  I think the Eagles may not be as good as everybody thinks, but they are a terrible matchup for the Vikings.  The Vikings have a question mark at QB, and struggle to throw the ball consistently.  The Eagles are going to blitz from all directions.  I know the Vikings have the best running back in the league, but I just can’t put money on a team this weak at QB.  The real wild card here is McNabb vs. that Viking’s defense.  If they Vikings D can create turnovers and Tarvaris Jackson takes care of the ball, they can win this one.  But….I’m putting my money on the QB with experience and a bit of a chip on his shoulder. 

 

Pick:  Eagles

NFL Week #17

BUCCANEERS (-13) vs. Raiders – Pick:  Raiders

 

PACKERS (-9.5) vs. Lions – Pick:  Packers

 

EAGLES (-1) vs. Cowboys – Pick:  Cowboys

 

VIKINGS (-6.5) vs. Giants – Pick:  Giants

 

TEXANS (-2.5) vs. Bears – Pick:  Texans

 

Panthers (-3) vs. SAINTS – Pick:  Saints

 

FALCONS (-14.5) vs. Rams – Pick:  Rams

 

BENGALS (-3) vs. Chiefs – Pick:  Chiefs

 

RAVENS (-12) vs. Jaguars – Pick:  Ravens

 

Titans (-3) vs. COLTS – Pick:  Titans

 

STEELERS (-10.5) vs. Browns – Pick:  Steelers

 

JETS (-2.5) vs. Dolphins – Pick:  Dolphins

 

Patriots (-6.5) vs. BILLS – Pick:  Patriots

 

CARDINALS (-6) vs. Seahawks – Pick:  Cardinals

 

49ERS (-3) vs. Redskins – Pick:  49ers

 

CHARGERS (-8) vs. Broncos – Pick:  Chargers

 

Last Week:  7-8

Season:  119-114-6

NFL Week #16

Colts (-6.5) vs. JAGUARS – No pick.  I just didn’t have time to get to this.  I’d like to think I’d have picked the Colts, but that’s easy to say after their miraculous cover.  We’ll just say no action and move on.

COWBOYS (-4.5) vs. Ravens – Pick:  Cowboys

Steelers (-1.5) vs. Titans – Pick:  Titans

Dolphins (-4) vs. CHIEFS – Pick:  Dolphins

PATRIOTS (-8) vs. Cardinals – Pick: Cardinals

BROWNS (-3) vs. Bengals – Pick:  Bengals

Eagles (-5) vs. REDSKINS – Pick:  Eagles

49ers (-5.5) vs. RAMS – Pick:  Rams

VIKINGS (-3) vs. Falcons – Pick:  Falcons

Saints (-7) vs. Lions – Pick:  Lions

GIANTS (-3) vs. Panthers – Pick:  Panthers

Jets (-4.5) vs. SEAHAWKS – Pick:  Seahawks

 Texans (-7.5) vs. RAIDERS – Pick:  Texans

BRONCOS (-7) vs. Bills – Pick: Bills

BUCANNEERS (-3) vs. Chargers – Pick:  Buccaneers

BEARS (-4.5) vs. Packers – Pick:  Bears

Last Week:  9-4-3

Season:  112-106-6

Why The Drama?

People often make comments in the course of conversation that I find to be odd.  One of my favorites is they like to comment about how “lucky” I am to have married my wife.   Typically, this comment comes after I’ve said I’m going on a golf trip or watch the game with my buddies, or just generally do what guys like to do. 

“Lucky” is absolutely an adjective to describe my life.  I’ve be very lucky, and meeting someone like my wife would certainly fall under that heading.  However, I find the “lucky” comment above to be interesting because, after dating my wife for several years, I decided to marry her.  She decided to marry me.   I knew we got along and she was pretty cool with me enjoying myself sans her from time to time.  If she wasn’t , I probably would not have married her.

As I settle into responsible adult life, I’m constantly amazed how satisfied my buddies are with a relationship or marital arrangement that basically has given them another mom.  When they were 12, they had to ask Mom if they could go play with their buddies. Now they are 30, and they have to ask their wife if they can go play with their buddies.  Most seem to be okay or even cherish getting bossed around by their wives.  For a long time, it boggled my mind.  Then about 6 months ago, the answer hit me.

It’s the drama.  Some people love the drama.  They can’t get enough.  They love the fact that beers and the game aren’t as simple as a car ride to the sports bar.  They have to get their wives to say “yes.”  Negotiate for it.  Maybe agree to watch a chick-flick in return.  And she’s still mad he’s going, but he went anyway. Drama, drama, drama. 

It’s extremely obvious, but I missed it because it’s 180 degrees from how I live my life.  I want to make everything as simple as possible.  I work to make money;  I don’t work to entertain myself with petty personal disputes or to build up my ego.  I’m the kinda guy a  meeting that will take the blame for something that is 100% not my fault just to get to some kind of resolution.  My attitude is, let’s just get whatever this is done so we can all go enjoy ourselves. 

I suppose to some people this is just too boring.  Every simple process requires the addition of multiple drama steps.  You know the type: The wife is always mad about something.  Their career is always in some sort of flux or crossroads.  Their family is always mad at them for something. 

The other problem is that when you get to be in your 30s, there’s not much to talk about.  Often our conversations center around the self-generated drama, which drives me nuts.  It’s like punching yourself in the head and then talking about your head injury.   Plus, you feel like by listening to the self-generated drama, you are participating in this manifestation. 

Is there a solution?  I don’t think so.  Just too many people who need the drama to get through the day.    

NFL Week #15

Need a big week this week.  I’m dangerously close to .500.

 

BEARS (-3) vs. Saints – Pick: Bears

 

Packers (-2) vs. JAGUARS – Pick:  Packers

 

COLTS (-17.5) vs. Lions – Pick:  Lions

 

Redskins  (-7) vs. BENGALS – Pick:  Redskins

 

FALCONS (-3) vs. Buccaneers – Pick: Falcons

 

DOLPHINS (-6.5) vs. 49ers – Pick:  49ers

 

Seahawks (-3) vs. RAMS – Pick:  Seahawks

 

JETS(- 7.5) vs. Bills – Pick:  Jets

 

Titans (-3) vs. TEXANS – Pick:  Titans

 

RAVENS (-1.5) vs. Steelers – Pick:  Steelers

 

PANTHERS (-7.5) vs. Broncos – Pick: Panthers

 

Chargers (-5) vs. CHIEFS – Pick:  Chiefs

 

CARDINALS (-3) vs. Vikings – Pick:  Vikings

 

Patriots (-7) vs. RAIDERS – Pick:  Patriots

 

COWBOYS (-3) vs. Giants – Pick:  Cowboys

 

EAGLES (-14) vs. Browns – Pick:  Eagles

Last Week:  6-9

Season:  103-102-3

 

 

NFL Week #14

One of the latest topics on the sports talking head circuit is how could the Chargers have hired and now seemingly retain Norv Turner.  It’s a solid question, but the answer is fairly simple.   I learned it from reading Next Man Up  by John Feinstein;  professional football teams, at their core, are really no different from the companies and businesses where most of us work.  Each team has to deal with a variety of egos, deserved or not.  Each team has great resources, overrated resources, and people that leave you wondering how exactly they got to where they are in their career.  And just like where you and I work, NFL teams mishire all the team.  It’s a hard thing to get right 100% of the time. 

 

Several years ago, I managed to get an interview with a sales manager for a small software company. They had an opening for a junior salesperson with 3-5 years experience.  At the time I had roughly 1 year of sort-of-sales experience, but happened to be referred down from the VP of Sales to the sales manager.  Within minutes of meeting this guy, I knew he had no interest in hiring me and resented the fact I was thrust upon him by his boss.  He was openly hostile and seemed to cling to his 3-5 years experience requirement.  Once I decided this guy was too big an ass to be my boss, I dropped my coping skills and started giving back what he was giving me. 

 

ME:  “You seem really hung up on this 3-5 years experience thing, but you keep calling this an entry level job.”

HIM:  “Yeah, we’ll I need somebody who can hit the ground running.  I don’t have time to train you.”

ME:  “So you want a guy who’s done a good job selling for 3-5 years to come here and sell for you.  I’m not so sure who you are going to get for this role.  I mean, you could guy somebody who’s done a solid job for 3-5 years who is taking this job because they don’t have any other options….”

HIM:  “No, no, no….you don’t understand.”

ME: “…or somebody who has worked in sales for 3-5 years who hasn’t really done much.  I can’t imagine somebody who has met or exceeded a quota for 3-5 years coming here and starting over.”

HIM:  “Yeah, see, you don’t understand.”

ME:  “What don’t I understand?   Why would somebody who nailed their quota for 3-5 years, seemingly making big money, come here, to an entry level position, and report to you.  That makes no sense.”

HIM:  “Yeah, see, you just don’t get it.  I think we are done here.”

 

What does this have to do with the Chargers?  Everything.   See, this clown I interviewed with had managed to talk himself in to the fact that he needed somebody with 3-5 years selling experience for his entry-level position.  He probably thought that more experience equaled more better.  But the reality of the situation was that he had written a qualification for a person who doesn’t exist.  No solid sales person with 3-5 years success is going to step down to an entry level position for a small software company.  In reality, the only person he was going to get was A) somebody who met his quals with no place else to go, or B) somebody who met his quals who was a bad sales person. 

 

Consider the timing of the Turner hire.  The Spanos family parted with Marty late in the coach firing season, so the pool of hires was limited.  They probably decided they had to have somebody with head coaching experience to pick up where Marty left off. The only problem with that is all that good former head coaches looking for work were already employed.  Rather than take a chance on a coordinator who might have done wonders for the franchise, they hired the best available guy who met their quals.  The only problem with that is the best available guy has never been, and is not, a good head coach, which is why he was available.  See what I mean?

 

[HOME TEAM IN CAPS]

 

CHARGERS (-10) vs. Raiders – Pick:  Chargers

 

COLTS (-13.5) vs. Bengals – Pick:  Colts

 

BEARS (-7) vs. Jaguars – Pick:  Bears

 

PACKERS (-6) vs. Texans – Pick:  Packers

 

TITANS (-14) vs. Browns – Pick:  Browns

 

LIONS (NL) vs. Vikings – NO PICK

 

RAVENS (-5.5) vs. Redskins – Pick:  Ravens

 

GIANTS (-7) vs. Eagles – Pick: Giants

 

SAINTS (-3) vs. Falcons – Pick:  Falcons

 

Jets (-3.5) vs. 49ERS – Pick:  Jets

 

BILLS (-1) vs. Dolphins – Pick:  Dolphins

 

BRONCOS (-9) vs. Chiefs – Pick:  Broncos

 

CARDINALS (-14) vs. Rams – Pick:  Rams

 

STEELERS (-3) vs. Cowboys – Pick:  Cowboys

 

Patriots (-4.5) vs. SEAHAWKS – Pick:  Patriots

 

PANTHERS (-3) vs. Buccaneers – Pick:  Panthers

 

Last Week:  8-8 (missed the Colts game, but I would have bet on a Colts cover)

Season:  97-93-3

College Bowl Season

I will spare you the “Why College Football Needs a Playoff” post.  There’s a million of them, everybody knows it would be the greatest sporting event of the year, but the collective action dilemma is just too great.  To many agendas and egos and money to come together one solution.  One day there may be a plus one game, but there will never be a seeded 8 or 16 team tournament, at least not in my lifetime. 

I do have issue with the one anti-playoff opinion that the current bowl structure is “nice for fans.”  It seems some people think that everyone who loves a college football team salivates to attend a bowl game.  I thing most college football fans fall into one of three buckets:  A) they love their team and would follow them to the gates of hell to watch them play, B) bowls are such a rarity for their team that they feel like they need to go because they don’t know when the invite will come again, and C) they like the idea of a mini-vacation some place nice around the holidays.   Considering that over half of I-A teams get bowl invites each season, and most people have jobs and kids and dogs and can’t just up and race off to Boise for Christmas, I’d say the bulk of people fall in Group C. 

Honestly, I’m amazed that some of these games have anybody but locals and relatives to the players.  The only games that really matter for anything are the BCS games and the National Championship Game.  Can you name the last 5 Gator Bowl winners?  Me neither.  The bulk of these games happen and are quickly forgotten.  And have your seen where some of them are?  Boise.  Detroit.  Nashville. Charlotte.  Washington DC.  Toronto.  I’m sure each has their redeeming qualities, but I’m not shelling out bucks to visit any of those in the dead of winter to watch a game that doesn’t matter.  It’s a testament to college football’s popularity, capitalism, and disposable income that these games even happen. 

But the “Bowls are nice for fans” opinion is rooted in the assumption that the current setup is some sort of desired state by all involved.  Let me pose the hypothetical:  Let’s say the NCAA creates a commission whose goal is to create a playoff for college football.  And after months of preparation and planning, the Playoff Commission reports that they have an 8 team playoff designed, but because of TV rights, sponsorships, whatever, the number of bowls that can coexist with this new playoff are only the 9 New Year’s Day Bowls and BCS bowls.  The rest will be eliminated. 

The celebration would be on the scale of V-J day in 1945.  Do you think the sports world would mourn the loss of the Motor City Bowl or the Music City Bowl or the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl?  No way.