Wildcard Weekend

Before I get to my NFL Year in Review and my Wildcard Weekend picks, here are a couple of thoughts on some recent news items.

-          Guess we missed our chance to sock those windfall taxes to the oil companies.  Everybody was quick slam the oil companies when gas was $4 per gallon.  If they were responsible for the price of gas, shouldn’t we thank them for lowering gas to 4 year lows?

 

-          Do retailers ever meet or exceed their expectations for Christmas sales?  I’ve been following business for roughly 10 years, and every single year, retailers fall short of expectations.  Yet the malls seem as crowded as ever.  People’s appetite for crap seems to grow.  Maybe retailers need to readjust their expectations.

 

-          Sure am glad we just flushed a $20B first installment on the Detroit automakers.  The difference between the banks and the automakers is that banks have solid business model but made a poor investment choice (mortgage backed securities), partially due to the federal government creations of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.  The Detroit automakers have a poor business model.  They’ve been on the brink of bankruptcy for years.  Their labor costs are way too high.  They made crappy cars for too long.  They’ve been living on borrowed time.  Mark these words – this is just payment #1 of many.  We would have been better off giving $8,000 tax free to the 2.4M people who have jobs supported by Detroit, tell them to get some job retraining, and be done with it. 

 

Now to my favorite topic:  the NFL.  I finished strong, going 12-3-1 in Week #17.  That means for the season, I went 131-117-7 for the games I picked.  So, if I bet $20 on every game, and paid standard Vegas juice, my year’s worth of hard work would have netted me $41.58.  So I got that going for me, which is nice.

 

Now let’s see how my bold preseason predictions panned out.  (You can read them here:  http://thinkinglikemike.wordpress.com/2008/09/04/bold-preseason-nfl-predictions/)

1.       The Cowboys will struggle to get a Wild Card Spot.  I’m taking full credit for this prediction.  The curse of “Hard Knocks” strikes again, and nobody is talking about it. 

2.       The Jags will unseat the Colts and win the AFC South.  Whoops. 

3.       The Bengals will be terrible, and Marvin Lewis will get fired.  I’m going to take 75% credit for that one;  the Bengals were terrible, and I think Marvin Lewis wishes he could get fired. 

4.       The Seahawks will win the NFC West.  Whoops.

5.       Aaron Rodgers will be just fine. I’m going to take full credit for this one because he was just fine.  The Packers problems were primarily defensive.  As for Packers management getting hailed for their decision making, that didn’t happen, but they haven’t been slammed either.  Brett Farve looked mighty old coming down the stretch.   On a related note, I feel the same way about Brett Farve as I feel about Christmas;  I don’t have a problem with him/it, I just get so tired of having it crammed down my throat week in and week out.

 

As for my division winner and wild cards:

AFC East:  Patriots – WRONG

AFC South:  Jaguars – WRONG

AFC North:  Steelers – RIGHT

AFC West:  Chargers – RIGHT

AFC Wild Card #1:  Colts – RIGHT

AFC Wild Card #2:  Broncos – WRONG

.500 in the AFC – not too bad.

 

NFC East:  Eagles – WRONG

NFC South:  Saints – WRONG

NFC North:  Packers – WRONG

NFC West:  Seahawks – WRONG

NFC Wild Card #1:  Vikings – WRONG

NFC Wild Card #2:  Cowboys – WRONG

 

And then there’s this:

AFC Champions:  Patriots

NFC Champions:  Packers

Super Bowl Champion:  Patriots

 

All wrong.    But I’ll always have my fictitious $41, and nobody can ever take that away from me. 

 

Falcons (-2) vs. CARDINALS

Okay, 4 road favorites are not covering this weekend.  This much we know.  But I think this road favorite gets the job done.  Normally, I’d be hesitant to pick a rookie QB on the road, but to say the Cardinals limped into the playoffs would be kind.  And Matt Ryan hasn’t looked like a rookie much this season.  The Falcons played tough and played well in football’s toughest division all year, and was a win away from sitting on the couch this weekend.   Go with momentum.  Go with the better team.

 

Pick:  Falcons

 

Colts (-1) vs. CHARGERS

Everybody loves the Colts, and rightfully so.  They have won 8 straight.  But let’s look inside those 8 straight.  They had one legit big win, over the Patriots at home.  They had two pretty good wins, over decent teams, the Texans and the last second win over the Chargers.   Big Ben gift wrapped the win over the Steelers.  The other four were over the Browns, Bengals, Lions, and Jags.  If somebody asked you to pick these games, you’d probably pick the Colts to at least go 6-2.  So, I think the Colts are a little overrated going into this game.   

 

This is an intriguing game.  Neither team is great.  Both teams give up too many points.  This one could be a track meet.  Honestly, I think it’s going to come down to who gets the ball last.  And since I said not all road favorites are winning, here’s my upset.  

 

Pick:  Chargers

 

Ravens (-3) vs. DOLPHINS

The Ravens have looked very impressive all year.  They are 7-2 in the last 9 weeks, with loses to the Giants (it was a bad one), and a squeaker to the Steelers.  The Dolphins have won 6 of their last 7, but they are squeaking by against the likes of the Seahawks and Raiders.  I think the Ravens win this one in a blowout. 

 

Pick:  Ravens

 

Eagles (-3) vs. VIKINGS

The Eagles were left for dead.  McNabb was going to get run out of town.  Andy Reid was going to get fired.   Now – they are everybody’s NFC sleeper.  I think the Eagles may not be as good as everybody thinks, but they are a terrible matchup for the Vikings.  The Vikings have a question mark at QB, and struggle to throw the ball consistently.  The Eagles are going to blitz from all directions.  I know the Vikings have the best running back in the league, but I just can’t put money on a team this weak at QB.  The real wild card here is McNabb vs. that Viking’s defense.  If they Vikings D can create turnovers and Tarvaris Jackson takes care of the ball, they can win this one.  But….I’m putting my money on the QB with experience and a bit of a chip on his shoulder. 

 

Pick:  Eagles

NFL Week #17

BUCCANEERS (-13) vs. Raiders – Pick:  Raiders

 

PACKERS (-9.5) vs. Lions – Pick:  Packers

 

EAGLES (-1) vs. Cowboys – Pick:  Cowboys

 

VIKINGS (-6.5) vs. Giants – Pick:  Giants

 

TEXANS (-2.5) vs. Bears – Pick:  Texans

 

Panthers (-3) vs. SAINTS – Pick:  Saints

 

FALCONS (-14.5) vs. Rams – Pick:  Rams

 

BENGALS (-3) vs. Chiefs – Pick:  Chiefs

 

RAVENS (-12) vs. Jaguars – Pick:  Ravens

 

Titans (-3) vs. COLTS – Pick:  Titans

 

STEELERS (-10.5) vs. Browns – Pick:  Steelers

 

JETS (-2.5) vs. Dolphins – Pick:  Dolphins

 

Patriots (-6.5) vs. BILLS – Pick:  Patriots

 

CARDINALS (-6) vs. Seahawks – Pick:  Cardinals

 

49ERS (-3) vs. Redskins – Pick:  49ers

 

CHARGERS (-8) vs. Broncos – Pick:  Chargers

 

Last Week:  7-8

Season:  119-114-6

NFL Week #16

Colts (-6.5) vs. JAGUARS – No pick.  I just didn’t have time to get to this.  I’d like to think I’d have picked the Colts, but that’s easy to say after their miraculous cover.  We’ll just say no action and move on.

COWBOYS (-4.5) vs. Ravens – Pick:  Cowboys

Steelers (-1.5) vs. Titans – Pick:  Titans

Dolphins (-4) vs. CHIEFS – Pick:  Dolphins

PATRIOTS (-8) vs. Cardinals – Pick: Cardinals

BROWNS (-3) vs. Bengals – Pick:  Bengals

Eagles (-5) vs. REDSKINS – Pick:  Eagles

49ers (-5.5) vs. RAMS – Pick:  Rams

VIKINGS (-3) vs. Falcons – Pick:  Falcons

Saints (-7) vs. Lions – Pick:  Lions

GIANTS (-3) vs. Panthers – Pick:  Panthers

Jets (-4.5) vs. SEAHAWKS – Pick:  Seahawks

 Texans (-7.5) vs. RAIDERS – Pick:  Texans

BRONCOS (-7) vs. Bills – Pick: Bills

BUCANNEERS (-3) vs. Chargers – Pick:  Buccaneers

BEARS (-4.5) vs. Packers – Pick:  Bears

Last Week:  9-4-3

Season:  112-106-6

Why The Drama?

People often make comments in the course of conversation that I find to be odd.  One of my favorites is they like to comment about how “lucky” I am to have married my wife.   Typically, this comment comes after I’ve said I’m going on a golf trip or watch the game with my buddies, or just generally do what guys like to do. 

“Lucky” is absolutely an adjective to describe my life.  I’ve be very lucky, and meeting someone like my wife would certainly fall under that heading.  However, I find the “lucky” comment above to be interesting because, after dating my wife for several years, I decided to marry her.  She decided to marry me.   I knew we got along and she was pretty cool with me enjoying myself sans her from time to time.  If she wasn’t , I probably would not have married her.

As I settle into responsible adult life, I’m constantly amazed how satisfied my buddies are with a relationship or marital arrangement that basically has given them another mom.  When they were 12, they had to ask Mom if they could go play with their buddies. Now they are 30, and they have to ask their wife if they can go play with their buddies.  Most seem to be okay or even cherish getting bossed around by their wives.  For a long time, it boggled my mind.  Then about 6 months ago, the answer hit me.

It’s the drama.  Some people love the drama.  They can’t get enough.  They love the fact that beers and the game aren’t as simple as a car ride to the sports bar.  They have to get their wives to say “yes.”  Negotiate for it.  Maybe agree to watch a chick-flick in return.  And she’s still mad he’s going, but he went anyway. Drama, drama, drama. 

It’s extremely obvious, but I missed it because it’s 180 degrees from how I live my life.  I want to make everything as simple as possible.  I work to make money;  I don’t work to entertain myself with petty personal disputes or to build up my ego.  I’m the kinda guy a  meeting that will take the blame for something that is 100% not my fault just to get to some kind of resolution.  My attitude is, let’s just get whatever this is done so we can all go enjoy ourselves. 

I suppose to some people this is just too boring.  Every simple process requires the addition of multiple drama steps.  You know the type: The wife is always mad about something.  Their career is always in some sort of flux or crossroads.  Their family is always mad at them for something. 

The other problem is that when you get to be in your 30s, there’s not much to talk about.  Often our conversations center around the self-generated drama, which drives me nuts.  It’s like punching yourself in the head and then talking about your head injury.   Plus, you feel like by listening to the self-generated drama, you are participating in this manifestation. 

Is there a solution?  I don’t think so.  Just too many people who need the drama to get through the day.    

NFL Week #15

Need a big week this week.  I’m dangerously close to .500.

 

BEARS (-3) vs. Saints – Pick: Bears

 

Packers (-2) vs. JAGUARS – Pick:  Packers

 

COLTS (-17.5) vs. Lions – Pick:  Lions

 

Redskins  (-7) vs. BENGALS – Pick:  Redskins

 

FALCONS (-3) vs. Buccaneers – Pick: Falcons

 

DOLPHINS (-6.5) vs. 49ers – Pick:  49ers

 

Seahawks (-3) vs. RAMS – Pick:  Seahawks

 

JETS(- 7.5) vs. Bills – Pick:  Jets

 

Titans (-3) vs. TEXANS – Pick:  Titans

 

RAVENS (-1.5) vs. Steelers – Pick:  Steelers

 

PANTHERS (-7.5) vs. Broncos – Pick: Panthers

 

Chargers (-5) vs. CHIEFS – Pick:  Chiefs

 

CARDINALS (-3) vs. Vikings – Pick:  Vikings

 

Patriots (-7) vs. RAIDERS – Pick:  Patriots

 

COWBOYS (-3) vs. Giants – Pick:  Cowboys

 

EAGLES (-14) vs. Browns – Pick:  Eagles

Last Week:  6-9

Season:  103-102-3

 

 

NFL Week #14

One of the latest topics on the sports talking head circuit is how could the Chargers have hired and now seemingly retain Norv Turner.  It’s a solid question, but the answer is fairly simple.   I learned it from reading Next Man Up  by John Feinstein;  professional football teams, at their core, are really no different from the companies and businesses where most of us work.  Each team has to deal with a variety of egos, deserved or not.  Each team has great resources, overrated resources, and people that leave you wondering how exactly they got to where they are in their career.  And just like where you and I work, NFL teams mishire all the team.  It’s a hard thing to get right 100% of the time. 

 

Several years ago, I managed to get an interview with a sales manager for a small software company. They had an opening for a junior salesperson with 3-5 years experience.  At the time I had roughly 1 year of sort-of-sales experience, but happened to be referred down from the VP of Sales to the sales manager.  Within minutes of meeting this guy, I knew he had no interest in hiring me and resented the fact I was thrust upon him by his boss.  He was openly hostile and seemed to cling to his 3-5 years experience requirement.  Once I decided this guy was too big an ass to be my boss, I dropped my coping skills and started giving back what he was giving me. 

 

ME:  “You seem really hung up on this 3-5 years experience thing, but you keep calling this an entry level job.”

HIM:  “Yeah, we’ll I need somebody who can hit the ground running.  I don’t have time to train you.”

ME:  “So you want a guy who’s done a good job selling for 3-5 years to come here and sell for you.  I’m not so sure who you are going to get for this role.  I mean, you could guy somebody who’s done a solid job for 3-5 years who is taking this job because they don’t have any other options….”

HIM:  “No, no, no….you don’t understand.”

ME: “…or somebody who has worked in sales for 3-5 years who hasn’t really done much.  I can’t imagine somebody who has met or exceeded a quota for 3-5 years coming here and starting over.”

HIM:  “Yeah, see, you don’t understand.”

ME:  “What don’t I understand?   Why would somebody who nailed their quota for 3-5 years, seemingly making big money, come here, to an entry level position, and report to you.  That makes no sense.”

HIM:  “Yeah, see, you just don’t get it.  I think we are done here.”

 

What does this have to do with the Chargers?  Everything.   See, this clown I interviewed with had managed to talk himself in to the fact that he needed somebody with 3-5 years selling experience for his entry-level position.  He probably thought that more experience equaled more better.  But the reality of the situation was that he had written a qualification for a person who doesn’t exist.  No solid sales person with 3-5 years success is going to step down to an entry level position for a small software company.  In reality, the only person he was going to get was A) somebody who met his quals with no place else to go, or B) somebody who met his quals who was a bad sales person. 

 

Consider the timing of the Turner hire.  The Spanos family parted with Marty late in the coach firing season, so the pool of hires was limited.  They probably decided they had to have somebody with head coaching experience to pick up where Marty left off. The only problem with that is all that good former head coaches looking for work were already employed.  Rather than take a chance on a coordinator who might have done wonders for the franchise, they hired the best available guy who met their quals.  The only problem with that is the best available guy has never been, and is not, a good head coach, which is why he was available.  See what I mean?

 

[HOME TEAM IN CAPS]

 

CHARGERS (-10) vs. Raiders – Pick:  Chargers

 

COLTS (-13.5) vs. Bengals – Pick:  Colts

 

BEARS (-7) vs. Jaguars – Pick:  Bears

 

PACKERS (-6) vs. Texans – Pick:  Packers

 

TITANS (-14) vs. Browns – Pick:  Browns

 

LIONS (NL) vs. Vikings – NO PICK

 

RAVENS (-5.5) vs. Redskins – Pick:  Ravens

 

GIANTS (-7) vs. Eagles – Pick: Giants

 

SAINTS (-3) vs. Falcons – Pick:  Falcons

 

Jets (-3.5) vs. 49ERS – Pick:  Jets

 

BILLS (-1) vs. Dolphins – Pick:  Dolphins

 

BRONCOS (-9) vs. Chiefs – Pick:  Broncos

 

CARDINALS (-14) vs. Rams – Pick:  Rams

 

STEELERS (-3) vs. Cowboys – Pick:  Cowboys

 

Patriots (-4.5) vs. SEAHAWKS – Pick:  Patriots

 

PANTHERS (-3) vs. Buccaneers – Pick:  Panthers

 

Last Week:  8-8 (missed the Colts game, but I would have bet on a Colts cover)

Season:  97-93-3

College Bowl Season

I will spare you the “Why College Football Needs a Playoff” post.  There’s a million of them, everybody knows it would be the greatest sporting event of the year, but the collective action dilemma is just too great.  To many agendas and egos and money to come together one solution.  One day there may be a plus one game, but there will never be a seeded 8 or 16 team tournament, at least not in my lifetime. 

I do have issue with the one anti-playoff opinion that the current bowl structure is “nice for fans.”  It seems some people think that everyone who loves a college football team salivates to attend a bowl game.  I thing most college football fans fall into one of three buckets:  A) they love their team and would follow them to the gates of hell to watch them play, B) bowls are such a rarity for their team that they feel like they need to go because they don’t know when the invite will come again, and C) they like the idea of a mini-vacation some place nice around the holidays.   Considering that over half of I-A teams get bowl invites each season, and most people have jobs and kids and dogs and can’t just up and race off to Boise for Christmas, I’d say the bulk of people fall in Group C. 

Honestly, I’m amazed that some of these games have anybody but locals and relatives to the players.  The only games that really matter for anything are the BCS games and the National Championship Game.  Can you name the last 5 Gator Bowl winners?  Me neither.  The bulk of these games happen and are quickly forgotten.  And have your seen where some of them are?  Boise.  Detroit.  Nashville. Charlotte.  Washington DC.  Toronto.  I’m sure each has their redeeming qualities, but I’m not shelling out bucks to visit any of those in the dead of winter to watch a game that doesn’t matter.  It’s a testament to college football’s popularity, capitalism, and disposable income that these games even happen. 

But the “Bowls are nice for fans” opinion is rooted in the assumption that the current setup is some sort of desired state by all involved.  Let me pose the hypothetical:  Let’s say the NCAA creates a commission whose goal is to create a playoff for college football.  And after months of preparation and planning, the Playoff Commission reports that they have an 8 team playoff designed, but because of TV rights, sponsorships, whatever, the number of bowls that can coexist with this new playoff are only the 9 New Year’s Day Bowls and BCS bowls.  The rest will be eliminated. 

The celebration would be on the scale of V-J day in 1945.  Do you think the sports world would mourn the loss of the Motor City Bowl or the Music City Bowl or the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl?  No way.