NFL Week #13 Picks

Happy Thanksgiving! 

[HOME TEAM IN CAPS]

Titans (-11) vs. LIONS – Pick:  Titans

COWBOYS (-13) vs. Seahawks – Pick:  Seahawks

EAGLES (-3) vs. Cardinals – Pick:  Cardinals

JETS (-7) vs. Broncos – Pick:  Jets

BILLS (-7) vs. 49ers – Pick:  Bills

BUCCANEERS (-3.5) vs. Saints – Pick:  Buccaneers

PACKERS (-3) vs. Panthers – Pick:  Panthers

Giants (-3) vs.  REDSKINS – Pick:  Giants

RAMS (PK) vs. Dolphins – Pick:  Dolphins

Ravens (-7) vs. BENGALS – Pick:  Ravens

CHARGERS (-5) vs. Falcons – Pick:  Falcons

PATRIOTS (-1) vs. Steelers – Pick:  Patriots

RAIDERS (-3) vs. Chiefs – Pick:  Raiders

Vikings (-3.5) vs. Bears – Pick:  Vikings

TEXANS (-3.5) vs. Jaguars – Pick:  Texans

Last Week:  7-8-1

Season:  89-85-3

Week #12 NFL Picks

Been busy, so quick picks again.  Still pissed about getting jobbed in the Steeler game.  Also saw a good season spoiled last week.  Ouch.

 

[HOME TEAM IN CAPS]

 

STEELERS (-11) vs. Bengals

Nice job here by Vegas.  I think the Bengals cover here, but it’s a coin flip.

Pick: Bengals

 

BROWNS (-3) vs. Texans

It’s in Cleveland.  It’ll be cold.  Sage will throw some picks.  I’ll lay the 3.

Pick:  Browns

 

Bills (-3) vs. CHIEFS

Suddenly the Bills are in free fall.  And just when I started believing.  I’m back off the bandwagon.

Pick:  Chiefs

 

TITANS (-5.5) vs. Jets

I’m not picking against the Titans until I see a compelling to reason to do so.

Pick:  Titans

 

DOLPHINS (-1.5) vs. Patriots

Everybody loves the Pats here, and I do too.  The Dolphins have benefited from some weak opponents, and the Patriots are playing much better with Cassel now. 

Pick:  Patriots

 

COWBOYS (-10.5) vs. 49ers

I’m still burying the Cowboys.

Pick:  49ers

 

Buccaneers (-9) vs. LIONS

Could the Lions go 0-16.  I think they got a shot at it….

Pick:  Buccaneers

 

RAVENS (-1) vs. Eagles

The Eagles are back to being their old tactics – being a mess by November.  How do you know a game an NFL game can’t end in a tie?  And why would you admit to it?  It’s almost like Donovan wants to get booted out of Philly.

Pick:  Ravens

 

Bears (-9) vs. RAMS

I would expect a stout bounce back from the ass whipping in Green Bay last week.

Pick:  Bears

 

JAGUARS (-2.5) vs. Vikings

I’m done with the Jags this year.  Just not their year.  The Vikings have more to play for.

Pick:  Vikings

 

FALCONS (-1) vs. Panthers

The Panthers are the best NFL team you don’t know about.   The Falcons looked awful vulnerable against a Broncos team that is just flat not very good.  The Panthers have historically struggled in a Georgia Dome, but I think they turn it around this week.

Pick:  Panthers

 

BRONCOS (-10) vs. Raiders

Can the NFL vote to assume control of the Raiders?  No, I’m serious.

Pick:  Broncos

 

Redskins (-3) vs. SEAHAWKS

Talk about not your season.

Pick:  Redskins

 

Giants (-3) vs. CARDINALS

Upset special in the desert.  The Gints go down.  Just a feelin’.

Pick:  Cardinals

 

CHARGERS (-3) vs. Colts

This line makes absolutely no sense to me.  Have you seen these two teams play recently?  Clearly the Colts are getting better.  The Chargers are close to being done.  I’ll gladly take 3 here.

Pick:  Colts

 

SAINTS (-2.5) vs. Packers

I’ll lay 2.5 on Brees’ offense.

Pick:  Saints

 

Last Week: 4-12

Season: 82-77-2

NFL Week #11 Picks

Quick Pick Format this week.  Again, you’ll have to trust me on the Jets/Pats – I lost anyway. 

[HOME TEAM IN CAPS]

PATRIOTS (-3.5) vs. Jets

Pick:  Patriots

 

FALCONS (-6) vs. Broncos

Pick:  Falcons

 

DOLPHINS (-10.5) vs. Raiders

Pick:  Dolphins

 

GIANTS (-7) vs. Ravens

Pick:  Ravens

 

COLTS (-8) vs. Texans

Pick:  Colts

 

Titans (-3) vs. JAGUARS

Pick:  Titans

 

PACKERS (-3.5) vs. Bears

Pick:  Bears

 

Eagles (-9.5) vs. BENGALS

Pick:  Eagles

 

Saints (-5) vs. CHIEFS

Pick:  Saints

 

PANTHERS (-14) vs. Lions

Pick:  Panthers

 

BUCCANEERS (-4) vs. Vikings

Pick:  Vikings

 

49ERS (-6.5) vs. Rams

Pick:  49ers

 

Cardinals (-2.5) vs. SEAHAWKS

Pick:  Cardinals

 

STEELERS (-5) vs. Chargers

Pick: Steelers

 

Cowboys (-1.5 ) vs. REDSKINS

Pick:  Redskins

 

BILLS (-4.5) vs. Browns

Pick:  Bills

 

Last Week:  8-6

Season:  78-65-2

Stop Challenging!

Football talking heads have often ridiculed NFL head coach’s clock management abilities when the game is on the line.  Something that has mostly escaped ridicule is decision-making around when to challenge calls.  This is something some coaches seem to be really be screwing-up, as we saw on Sunday.  Consider the following examples:

 

Giants at Eagles, Giants lead 30-24, 10:08 left in the game.  Giants drive inside the 5, and Brandon Jacobs tackled at the Eagles 3 yard line fumbles the football.  Officials rule he was down by contact.  Every replay from every angle show he was down.  Yet Andy Reid challenges the ruling.  Of course he loses the challenge and a timeout.  Why are you challenging when you know you are going to lose with over 10 minutes to play?  I know things are looking desperate, but there’s time left to tie or win the game. The timeout and challenge might be extremely valuable in the last 10 minutes, and actually might have helped the Eagles come back. 

 

Next play, Jacobs scores from the 3 on 1^st and goal, and Andy Reid challenges, saying he didn’t break the plane of the goal.  This challenge was even dumber than the previous challenge because Reid is mostly likely screwing his team if he wins the challenge.  Follow this logical progression: The official ruling is that Jacobs scored a TD stopping the clock with 9:35 to play in the game.  If Reid doesn’t challenge, the Eagles will get the kick off with plenty of time to score twice and two timeouts.  If Reid loses the challenge, he loses his final challenge and will only have one timeout remaining as his team tries to score two TDs in the last 9 minutes.  If he wins the challenge, the Giants will have 2^nd and Goal from one inch line.  A TD is very likely here, but you are letting the Giants run more time off the clock.  Why are you challenging this ruling?  Even if you win the challenge, you are not helping  your team. 

 

By far the dumbest challenge of the day came from Mike McCarthy of the Green Bay Packers.  The Viking’s Adrian Peterson just scored to tie the game at 27 with 2:30 to play in the game, extra point pending.  McCarthy challenged that Peterson crossed the plane of the goal.  Again, winning the challenge here was unlikely, but even if you do win, the Vikings will have 1^st and goal from the 1;  the Vikes are very likely to get their TD, but only after running valuable seconds off the clock.  So even if you win the challenge, you are likely going to hurt your team by the letting the Vikings get their TD but run off more time.   Of course, McCarthy lost his challenge, and a timeout that may have been extremely valuable as the Packers drove to attempt a game-winning field goal. Why would you challenge?

 

I was not surprised to hear from Al Michaels last night that the coach who is most successful challenging rulings was Tom Coughlin of the Super Bowl champion Giants.  He made an excellent challenge last night, challenging a ruling of an illegal forward pass because Manning allegedly past the line of scrimmage when he threw the ball.  It was a close call and the Giants were down 24-20.  If Coughlin won his challenge, the Giants would have 1^st and Goal from the 3, meaning a TD was likely.  If Coughlin lost, the Giants would have to kick a 40 or so yard field goal to pull within 1.  Coughlin won the challenge, and the Giants went on to score a TD to take the lead, and didn’t look back.

 

It seems NFL Coaches love to throw the red flag out of frustration or desperation, rather than using the challenge judiciously to put their teams into a better position to win games.  Why would you challenge when you have little hope in winning the challenge? A timeout is always an asset as you attempt a comeback.  And why would you ever challenge when A) you have not chance to win the challenge but a chance to win the game, and/or B)  winning the challenge would be as bad or worse than just letting the ruling on the field stand. 

 

I’m sure there is a lot happening on an NFL sideline, but these challenges are just exercises in probability and logic.  NFL Coaches:  Slow down on the challenge.  Think for just a second.  Print and laminate a little “Challenge Decision Tree” that you can reference before you challenge.  Let’s use that decision tree to examine Andy Reid’s first challenge, McCarthy’s challenge, and Coughlin’s challenge:

 

	Reid’s Challenge	McCarthy’s Challenge	Coughlin’s Challenge
Game-Changing Situation?	Yes	Yes	Yes
Probability of winning the challenge	< 10%	20%	50%
If you don’t challenge…	Get kickoff down 12-14 with just under 10 minutes to play.	Get kickoff down 1 with 2:30 to play.	41 yard field goal attempt.
If you win the challenge…	Opponent has 1st and goal from the 3, clock running.	Opponent has 1st and goal from the 1, clock running	1st and Goal from the 3.
Meaning the likely point swing from winning the challenge is….	Mostly likely 0 and you lose valuable time.	Mostly likely 0 and you lose valuable time.	4-7 points

 

Once you break it down, it’s pretty clear who should challenge and who shouldn’t.  You could even create a little expected point value equation to help with the decision.  Wonder if I can get $250K per year from some team to be their Challenge Coach…

 

NFL Week #10

Quick picks this week.  You’ll have to trust me on the Thursday night game. 

 

[HOME TEAM IN CAPS]

 

BROWNS (-3) vs. Broncos

Pick:  Broncos

 

Jaguars (-7) vs. LIONS

Pick:  Jaguars

 

Titans (-3) vs. BEARS

Pick:  Titans

 

PATRIOTS (-4) vs. Bills

Pick:  Patriots

 

FALCONS (PK) vs. Saints

Pick:  Falcons

 

JETS (-8) vs. Rams

Pick:  Rams

 

DOLPHINS (-9) vs. Seahawks

Pick:  Dolphins

 

VIKINGS (-2.5) vs. Packers

Pick:  Packers

 

Panthers (-9) vs. RAIDERS

Pick:  Panthers

 

CHARGERS (-15) vs. Chiefs

Pick:  Chiefs

 

STEELERS (-3) vs. Colts

Pick:  Steelers

 

EAGLES (-3) vs. Giants

Pick:  Giants

 

TEXANS (PK) vs. Ravens

Pick:  Texans

 

CARDINALS (-10) vs. 49ers

Pick: Cardinals

 

Last Week: 6-8

Season:  70-59-2

Election 2008

The question I get from many people upon hearing that I’m largely indifferent to the results of tomorrow’s election are:

 

“How can you not care?  This is an historic election.  (If the person supports Obama) Do you want 8 more years like the past 8?  (If the person supports McCain) Do you want to live in a socialist country?”

 

Historic?  Please.  This election is no more historic than 2004 and won’t be any more historic than 2012.  That’s a byline to keep you watching CNN.  Yes, I realize we have a war and financial turmoil, but we’ve had that before.  To the Obama/8-more-years argument, I have to say the last 8 years have been pretty good for me.  Look, you can bash a lot about the Bush Administration, argue about the Iraq War, Cheney, partisanship, etc.   But it’s been over 7 years since the first and only terrorist attack on US soil.  You’ll never convince me the Bush Administration and the military action they took didn’t play a role in that fact.  Oh how quickly we forget the day a bunch of anti-American Muslim nut-jobs flew commercial jets into buildings.    

 

To the Obama=socialism crowd, I have a little quiz.  Which president presided over the largest increase in federal social spending since LBJ?  Give up.  The answer is the current Republican president George W. Bush.  The bill in question was the free-drugs-for-seniors bill, or as I prefer to call it, “no drug company left behind.”  So I hold little or no hope that GOP will steer us away from a western European-like socialist agenda.

 

The other comment I hear quite a bit is that I’m a cynic.  That’s true, though I prefer to the term “realist.”  A lot of the discussion this campaign season has been analogous to a bunch of guys talking about the Hollywood starlets with whom they’d have sex;  fun way to pass the time, never going to happen.  The #1 problem facing our country is this:  we spend and promise way more than we can afford to pay.  Our elected leaders have taken to behaving like drunken frat boys with daddy’s American Express.  Between an aging population and Social Security and Medicaid promises, we are headed down a road that ends with this country going bankrupt in 20 years. 

Think this is ravings of a blog lunatic? Read this article from Fortune Magazine:  http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/28/magazines/fortune/babyboomcrisis_walker.fortune/index.htm. 

Scary, no?  Wonder why you don’t hear about this in the news?  First off, the major impacts are some 15 years away, though every day our elected leaders do nothing makes the problem worse.  Second, you can’t have two or more adults scream at each other on a cable news show about it.  There is no debate.  Unless there are drastic changes, such as redefining benefits or massive cost cuts or tax increases, we are going to run out of money.  No one from either party argues this fact.  Everybody seems to think the problem will just fix itself.   Third, since the vast majority of this spending affects older people, and older people vote in droves, cutting the entitlements is off the table.  No politician could win saying he was going to cut Social Security and Medicaid money.  People over 50 think of these programs as their birth right. 

As you head to the voting booth tomorrow, you can believe whatever you want to believe about what your guy is going to do.  Whoever wins is going to have a mess on their hands come Wednesday, November 5^th.  I just hope whoever the winner is has the good sense to do the right thing for our country despite whatever pie-in-the-sky promises they made on the campaign trail, or whatever special interest groups delivered the win to them.  Only then will we know if we got the right man for the job.