We are roughly to the quarter pole of the 2008 NFL Season. While it’s too early to claim victory of defeat on my bold preseason predictions, we have learned some things. But we have not learned as much as we think we have learned. Because of all the hours of coverage, and literally thousands of talking heads, the NFL is an overreaction league. Lose a game and you suck. Win a game and you are headed to Tampa. So let’s examine some common “thoughts” that have been tossed around.
The Buffalo Bills are for real: Um…yeah, I’d hold off on preselling those first round playoff game tickets just yet. They beat a Seattle team that were taking resumes for wide receiver. They beat two teams whose coaches were fired earlier this week. And they beat a Jacksonville team that basically had to retool their offensive line right before Week #1. In the next 6 weeks, they travel to Arizona and get the Jets and Chargers at home. If they fall behind, like they did against the Raiders and Rams, it won’t be so easy to get back into that game. If they are 7-2 after Week #10, I’ll say they are for real. Until then, I’m not falling into the Bills-giving-7 trap.
The Jets will improve as they let Brett be Brett: Okay, Brett threw 6 TD passes last weekend. That was impressive. The Jets also gave up 35 to a bad Rams team that turned the ball over roughly 18 times. They gave up 48 to San Diego. That’s a lot of points. If they are going to just turn Farve loose, he’s just about as likely to give you 4 TDs as 4 picks. They’ve got to stop somebody other than the Week #1 Dolphins and Brady-less Pats. Be careful here….
Kerry Collins was the missing ingredient to the Titans success: Of the 3, I actually kinda buy this one. Seems to me the Titans are working on the Ravens Super Bowl model: Limit every oppoent to 17-10 points, don’t turn the ball over, and hopefully get some defensive points to put you over the top. And their defense doesn’t really have any high-powered offenses left on the schedule. They’ve got Indy twice yet, but otherwise their schedule is very favorable. I like the Titans.
The Cowboys are the favorites in the NFC: This idea showed some cracks last week. I’ve felt since the first episode of “Hard Knocks” that this team is just a little too in love with themselves. I sense there is a certain level of focus missing. They have enough talent to put up 50 on anybody. They have enough egos to focus on the wrong things and get in their own way. (See Week #4 game plan vs. the Redskins.) They have three weeks where they should get back on track before a brutal stretch vs. Tampa Bay, at the Giants and at Washington. That’ll be the test.
Mike is one helluva handicapper: Slow down there, Chief. It’s early yet, and most of the my success was in last week. There are some tough one’s this week. Let’s see how I look around Week #9.
With no further ado, let’s look at the Week #5 picks
[HOME TEAM IN CAPS]
Colts (-3) vs. TEXANS
The Texans have given the Colts fits in Houston in the past. I think that streak ends Sunday. The Colts are coming off a bye week, while the Texans are coming off a tough and physical loss at Jacksonville.
Pick: Colts
Titans (-2.5) vs. RAVENS
The Ravens should have beaten the Steelers. But I don’t think the Steelers are all that good.
Pick: Titans
Chargers (-6.5) vs. DOLPHINS
Am I going to take 3 road favorites in a row? Yes I am! I see this one as a shootout, and the Chargers score the last touchdown to win.
Pick: Chargers
PANTHERS (-10) vs. Chiefs
I don’t trust any team in the NFL giving 10 right now.
Pick: Chiefs
EAGLES (-6) vs. Redskins
The Redskins are starting to believe. The Eagles are beat up. They may win, but no cover.
Pick: Redskins
Bears (-3.5) vs. LIONS
I see no reason to pick the Lions. None whatsoever. Make that 4 road favorites.
Pick: Bears
Falcons (NL) vs. PACKERS
The rule for this blog is NL = No Pick.
GIANTS (-7.5) vs. Seahawks
I still don’t know what to make of this Giants team. Seemed like they were just playing to take a few days off against the Bengals two weeks ago. The Seahawks are slowly getting healthy. Seems like too many points for me.
Pick: Seahawks
BRONCOS (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers
The Broncos are typically pretty solid at home, but they are giving up way, way too many points. I think the Broncos might need a last minute field goal to bring this one home.
Pick: Buccaneers
Patriots (-3) vs. 49ERS
No way 6 road favorites cover. No way. The 49ers win this on, Randy Moss goes beserk, and let the good times roll.
Pick: 49ers
CARDINALS (-1) vs. Buffalo
I don’t’ know if the Bills can come back if they fall behind early again.
Pick: Cardinals
COWBOYS (-17.5) vs. Bengals
I don’t trust any team in this league giving more than 10.
Pick: Bengals
JAGUARS (-3.5) vs. Steelers
I just don’t think the Steelers are that good. They could easily be 0-4 right now.
Pick: Jaguars
SAINTS (-3) vs. Vikings
I can’t figure either of these teams out. I think the Vikings are less beat up.
Pick: Vikings
Last Week: 9-4
Season: 35-26-1
Tags: NFL, NFL Picks, NFL Picks Week #5
