NFL Week #9 Picks

At  the sorta half-way point of the NFL Season, let’s take a look back at my bold preseason predictions, and see how I’m doing.  This will involve a lot of patting me on the back.  I’m just warning you. 

 

1.       The Cowboys will struggle to get a Wild Card Spot.  That one’s coming right along.  Will anybody do “Hard Knocks” again after the show goes 4-4 in predicting playoff missers?  And what’s the over/under on when TO loses it?  Sunday night?  Next Wednesday?

2.       The Jags will unseat the Colts and win the AFC South.  Half credit on this one.  Somebody did unseat the Colts, but it was the Titans.  And, again on Monday night, the Colts didn’t look bad, just off enough to lose. 

3.       The Bengals will be terrible, and Marvin Lewis will get fired.  Don’t my predictive skills frighten you sometimes? 

4.       The Seahawks will win the NFC West.  This one’s not looking good, but I’m not ready to pronounce it dead yet.  The Seahawks are tied for second in the division.  (Or last, if you are a glass half-empty person.)  They are only two games out of first and have yet to play their two games with division leading Arizona.  5 of their last 9 are in Seattle.   I’m not saying, I’m just saying.

5.       Aaron Rodgers will be just fine.  I might have missed on the “Packers management will be hailed” part, but I think we can all agree Aaron hasn’t really hurt the Packers and has overall done a solid-to-good job.   One a related not though, did you hear the boo-birds in NY last week when Farve threw his 3 picks.  I’m telling you – this is going to end badly.  Farve’s going to lose it with the NY press.  He was a god in Wisconsin, even when he was heave-hoeing pick after pick.  He’s not used to being criticized. 

 

And a look at my predicted division winners and wild cards:

 

AFC East:  Patriots (Currently tied for 1^st)

AFC South:  Jaguars (Tied for 2^nd….yeah I know.  Not going to happen.)

AFC North:  Steelers (In 1^st)

AFC West:  Chargers (In 2^nd, one game out of first)

AFC Wild Card #1:  Colts (only one game out of the Wild Card spot)

AFC Wild Card #2:  Broncos (Leading the West right now)

 

NFC East:  Eagles (uh… last place)

NFC South:  Saints (ditto)

NFC North:  Packers (tied for 1^st)

NFC West:  Seahawks (as discussed, 2 games out of 1^st)

NFC Wild Card #1:  Vikings (Not looking good)

NFC Wild Card #2:  Cowboys (ditto)

 

AFC Champions:  Patriots (Feasible, though a bit of a long shot)

NFC Champions:  Packers (Same deal here.)

 

Super Bowl Champion:  Patriots (Not giving up on this yet.)

 

On to this week’s picks

[HOME TEAM IN CAPS]

 

VIKINGS (-4.5) vs. Texans

I think the Vikings get the win and the cover here.  Houston hasn’t proved much to me beating two winless teams.

Pick:  Vikings

 

Jaguars (-8) vs. BENGALS

In the spirit of full disclosure, I’m a Jags fan.  I met Del Rio a few times and he’s very nice guy.  But I’m pissed.  The Jags needed to beat the Browns at home and didn’t.  This is a must have game for the Jags.  If they lose this one, they can make vacation plans in January.   That’s why I think they get the job done here.

Pick:  Jaguars

 

Buccaneers (-9) vs. CHIEFS

Do you trust Thigpen to keep this closer than 9?  Me neither.

Pick:  Buccaneers

 

BROWNS (-1.5) vs. Ravens

Suddenly the Browns look a little frisky.  Here’s why I’m picking the Ravens:  This game will likely be a close one. Now, imagine having $50 on the Browns, and needing Romeo to kill the clock or manage a 2 minute drill.  How would you feel? 

Pick:  Ravens

 

BILLS (-5.5) vs. Jets

The week I start believing, the Bills play poorly.  Having said that, the Jets aren’t lighting the world on fire.  This one will depend on whether Brett’s gunslings land primarily in the Jets’ hands or whether they lead to the Bills going the other way.

Pick:  Bills

 

Cardinals (-3) vs. RAMS

It’s about time for the Cards to start screwing the pooch, don’t you think.  Suddenly the Rams are on a 2 game, win-and-cover streak.  Ride the wave.

Pick: Rams

 

BEARS (-12.5) vs. Lions

No much to say here.

Pick:  Bears

 

TITANS (-4.5) vs. Packers

Not sure how you can pick against this Titan team right now.  I was very impressed with their toughness on Monday night.

Pick:  Titans.

 

BRONCOS (-3.5) vs. Dolphins

I can’t figure out if this Bronco team is any good or not.  I guess I’ll give them the nod at home.

Pick:  Broncos

 

Falcons (-3) vs. RAIDERS

The Falcons where one botched call away from making their game last week in Philly a game.  I think these guys can play ball.  The Raiders cannot.

Pick:  Falcons

 

GIANTS (-8.5) vs. Cowboys

Bet you wouldn’t expect to see this line a couple weeks ago.  Honestly, I think the Cowboys lose this one in a rout.  They just can’t score right now.  I don’t’ see them getting more than 14 against this Giants team, and the Giants should have a field day with the Cowboys secondary.  This feels like a 35-14 game to me.

Pick:  Giants.

 

Eagles (-6.5) vs. SEAHAWKS

You know the Eagles are going to blitz Wallace ever single down.

Pick:  Eagles

 

COLTS (-6.5) vs. Patriots

The Colts are back in the unfriendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium.  I just can’t lay 6.5 with the Colts anymore.  I just can’t.

Pick:  Patriots

 

REDSKINS (-2.5) vs. Steelers

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again:  This Steeler team is not very good.

Pick:  Redskins

 

Last Week:  7-6-1

Season:  64-51-2

Election 2008

In the home stretch of this campaign, I thought I’d take a moment to lend my thoughts on this presidential election to fray.  I’m going to break this down issue by issue.  I promise you that I’m not biased for either candidate because don’t see the end result being much different regardless of who is elected.

 

TAXES

Obama says he’ll cut taxes is you make less than 250K per year and raise them if you make more.

McCain says he’ll cut taxes across the board.

The reality:  The country is swimming in debt and it’s only going to get worse as demands on Social Security and Medicare increase.  There are only 3 ways this is going to end:  1) nothing happens and the country nearly goes bankrupt (likely), 2) we raise taxes to pay of all these giveaways (equally likely), or 3) we cut spending (never going to happen.)   So if you currently pay taxes, I’d expect to pay more in the future. 

 

THE WAR IN IRAQ

Obama says he wants to establish a reasonable timetable to bring our troops home soon.

McCain says he wants to make sure we stay long enough to get the job done, however long it takes.

The reality:  The Iraq War is a fluid situation in a tender box that is the Middle East.  Things can change and change again between now and either one of these guys is sworn into office.  Of the two, I think McCain’s position is the most reasonable.  Consider this scenario:  Obama wins and, upon being sworn into office, immediately begins to draw down our forces in Iraq.  Iraq descends into a Shia/Sunni civil war, with Iranian involvement.  The world’s oil supply get’s crunched due to all the violence in the region, and gas shoots up to $5/gallon.  Now do you think the gas guzzling American public would be fine with this?  No way.  Our troops would go back to the Middle East.  The country loves peace, but not that price at the pump.  Disagree all you want.  You are wrong.

 

HEALTH CARE

Obama wants to insure everybody through government involvement.

McCain wants to make insurance more affordable through government involvement.

The reality:  Health care is America is a jumbled mess.  I don’t know the answer.  I’m pretty sure nobody has a complete and realistic one.  I can only tell you that A) Any plan that forces people to do anything will fail (see Massachusetts) and B) anything that smells like socialized medicine will fail.  Americans love the idea of universal health coverage;   Americans hate what that means in practice.  I’m rooting for whoever wins to get something tangible and real done on this front.  I just don’t have much confidence that there is any plan so brilliant as to satisfy enough people to be viable. 

 

THE ECONOMY/JOBS

Obama says he’ll stop jobs going overseas and help the American worker.

McCain says he’ll stop jobs going overseas and help the American worker.

The reality:  It’s all a bunch of big talk.  It’s a globalized economy, and firms will go where labor and materials are cheapest and most effective.  The shame is that some people actually believe either or both of these guys can really do anything.  If you want guaranteed employment your options are either get a job with the Federal government or become tenured faculty at some university.  The rest of us will always be at the mercy of someplace in the world that can do our job better and/or cheaper.  If you don’t believe me, call up some automotive workers in Detroit or furniture manufactures from North Carolina.  They’ve heard this crap for 20 years, and their jobs haven’t come back yet.

 

See what I mean?

NFL Week #8 Picks

Ouch.  My first losing week ATS of the season.  I suppose I was due.  Just for fun, let’s look as some of my insights from last week.  I’m going to approach this constructively.

 

Last week I said:  The Chiefs lone win was in Arrowhead.  They had two weeks to prepare.  8 is a lot of points. 

 

Yeah…the Chiefs actually had to use the emergency QB last week, but the Titans were covering well before that point.  The Chiefs are so bad, Arrowhead cannot even help them. 

 

Last week I said:  Could it be that the Dolphins are a decent-to-good team?

 

Answer:  No.

 

Last week I said:  I’ll wait to bury the Cowboys until next week.

 

And that would be a week too late.  It’s full reverse for the ‘Boys.  Will there ever be another season of “Hard Knocks” after this implosion?  Four seasons of the show.  3 seasons down the toilet.  One standing on the bowl.

 

Last week I said:  Did you see how much Nolan was screaming at his team last week.  He looked like a man losing a team and, shortly, his job.

 

And let me take a moment to pat myself on the back for both the accurate pick and the call on Nolan’s job. 

 

Last week I said:  I think the Colts are starting to warm-up.

 

Umm….yeah.  Swing and a miss.  The funny thing about the Colts is, they don’t seem like a train wreck.  It just seems like everybody just a hair off.  I’m going to make a bold statement about this team’s season in this week’s picks.  Stay tuned…

 

And the winner of “Dumb NFL Thought by Mike” is:  Suddenly the Patriots look really bad.

 

In my defense, they did against the Chargers.  I think it’s possible that the Broncos are just not very good and had a bad game.  But don’t go throwing the dirt on the Pats yet.  They are 4-2.  I game out of the East with two meetings against the Bills (whom I don’t yet believe in) to go.

 

[HOME TEAM IN CAPS]

 

RAVENS (- 7)  vs.  Raiders

The final score could be 7-0.

Pick:  Ravens

 

Chargers (-3) vs. SAINTS

Norv Turner and Wade Phillips are the same guy;  great coordinators, terrible head coaches.  How do they keep getting jobs?  For the talk about how tough the NFL is, if you can just get that one head coaching job, then get recycled a couple times, and then parlay that into a studio job, you can bank millions.

Pick:  Saints

 

JETS (-13.5) vs. Chiefs

Is the Farve mandated to last until November 1^st?  Do you realize the Jets are basically where they were last year?  (They were 3-4 after Week #7 last year;  3-3 now.)   Farve is the 12^th ranked NFL QB with a 92.3 rating.  Not bad, but hardly the revolution his arrival was made out to be.  After the Cowboys implosion is complete, this will be the next big story.  The NY Press vs. Brett Farve.  I’m excited.

Pick:  Jets

 

Bills (-1.5) vs. DOLPHINS

Ok, Bills.  I’m starting to believe.

Pick:  Bills

 

COWBOYS (-2) vs. Buccaneers

Everybody spend the whole week writing the ‘boys obituary, which is why I’m going against the grain here and taking the Cowboys.   Seriously, look at that line.  Vegas is begging you to take the Bucs.  Begging you.  Don’t do it. 

Pick:  Cowboys

 

EAGLES (-9) vs. Falcons

This is one of those times that picking ATS is actually easier than straight up.  Straight up, this game is a head scratcher.  Solid experience vs. scrappy youth.  But if you give the Falcons 9…thank you very much.

Pick: Falcons   

 

PATRIOTS (-7.5) vs. Rams

I’m still not sold on the Patriots.  Yeah, they stomped the Broncos pretty good, but they also got about a dozen turnovers.  I kinda get the felling the Rams are gelling a little bit.  They are still in their awful division.

Pick:  Rams   

 

PANTHERS (- 4) vs. Cardinals

The Panthers typically get the job done at home.

Pick:  Panthers

 

Redskins (-7.5) vs. LIONS

I just don’t trust this ‘Skins giving 7.5.  They seem to play down to people.

Pick:  Lions

 

JAGUARS  (-6.5) vs. Browns

Off a bye, the Jags start their run to catch the Titans.  If they are going to do it, they got have these types of games – at home vs. an inferior opponent.

Pick:  Jaguars

 

 STEELERS (-2.5) vs. Giants

I just flat don’t believe the Steelers are very good.  The toyed around with a terrible Bengals team before pulling away, thanks to many Bengals mistakes.  Yeah, they beat the Jags, but as we’ve seen time and again, all these teams are talented enough to put it together every once and a while. 

Pick:  Giants

 

 49ERS (-5.5) vs. Seahawks

I think Coach Singletary will motivate the troops.  The Seahawks are very beat up.  See also:  Lame Duck Coach discussion under the Titans/Colts game.

Pick:  49ers. 

 

TEXANS (-9.5) vs. Bengals

You think they’ll fire Marvin Lewis right after the last game, or wait until the next day?

Pick:  Texans

 

TITANS (-3.5) vs. Colts

Here’s the problem with lame duck coaches:  Everyone, including them, knows this is it.  Think about it.  You are coaching the Colts.  You know that this is just not going to be your year.  You’ve already gotten that Super Bowl win.  So when it’s 9:30 at night, do you watch one more film, or do you pack it in and grab some dinner?  It’s just human nature.  How into your job would you be after you gave two week’s notice?  Despite all the faces still being there, the organization has begun its transition to the next administration.  That’s why everybody is just a little bit off.

Pick:  Titans

 

Last Week:  6-8

Season:  57-45-1

The Life Test

I’ve pretty much stopped watching the news on TV because I’m tired of watching people who exhibit chronic poor decision-making skills paraded around as people wronged by circumstance.  After reflecting on this for a while, I devised a possible solution to this problem.  And I plan on leveraging our existing public education system to solve the problem.

 

A few years ago, standards of learning and standardized testing were all the rage.  My plan is for the states to implement a simple basic knowledge and logic test to make sure everybody who gets a high school diploma can function in our society.  I’m even going to take this a step further and write the test. Pay attention, state education administrators.  I’m going to do your job for you on this one. 

 

BASIC HIGH SCHOOL COMPETENCY EXAM

Please choose the choice that is the best answer to each question.

 

Question #1a:  You live in a house on land in a coastal area that is below sea level next to one of the largest lakes in the United States in an area prone to devastating hurricanes.  You see on the news that a powerful hurricane is two days away.  Should you make plans to evacuate?

A)     Yes

B)      No

Question #1b:  You own many things that you like in your coastal home.  Should you purchase flood insurance to insure the things you like from possible flood damage?

A)     Yes

B)      No

 

Question #2:  Accepted financial management principles state that people should own many different stocks instead of just one company’s stocks to insure the investor against one company going bust.  If you invest in only one company and that company goes bust, you will lose your whole investment.  Your company allows you to invest your pre-tax savings in just their stock or a mutual fund of many stocks.  To minimize the risk of losing your savings, do you:

A)     Invest in just your company’s stock.

B)      Invest in the mutual fund.

 

Question #3:  You work for a factory that has announced it will close in the next 6 months.  There are no other factories or jobs comparable to yours anywhere nearby.  Which of the following actions would put you and your family in the best economic situation for the future?

A)     Attend speeches given by politicians promising to stop the jobs going overseas and threatening “fat cat” bosses.

B)      Write a letter to your union.

C)      Explore moving to where you might be able to get a new job like your old job.

D)     Examine job retraining programs, and consider a job in a new field that is more stable, at least in the short term.

E)      Both C & D.

 

Question #4a:  You are about to buy a home, and prevailing interest rates for mortgages are 6%.  A banker contacts you and says he can get you a mortgage for 1% interest.  Chances are:

A)     There is some kind of catch, such as a large interest rate increase in year or less.

B)      This is a great deal.  You have absolutely no reason to be suspicious.

Question #4b:  Ultimately, your banker tells you that your mortgage payment, plus local taxes and insurance, are going to cost you $800 per month.  Your income, after taxes and health care are withheld, is $900.  Should you purchase this home?

A)     Absolutely.  I’ll be making way more money soon and, until then, will just put everything else on a credit card.

B)      No, because $100 will not cover food, heat, and electricity, and I shouldn’t take on much credit card debt.

 

Question #5:  If a credit card company offers you a credit card with a $10,000 credit limit, you can absolutely and without question afford to put $10,000 worth of purchases on that card.

A)     True

B)      False

 

Question #6:  You decide to start your own company.  Should you form a limited liability corporation (LLC) to separate and protect your personal assets, such as a house, from any possible lawsuits or failures of the company?

A)     Absolutely.  LLCs are a good way to protect my family regardless of whether my business flourishes or fails.

B)      Nah.  I’m a nice person.  No one would ever want to sue me.

 

Question #7:  No one has ever lost money buying and then selling a home.

A)     True

B)      False

 

Question #8:   You decide to buy a large house in the suburbs that is some 30 miles from your office.  You drive an SUV because you need the room and like being higher than other cars.  An increase in gas prices from $3/gallon to $5/gallon means:

A)     You are going to spend $140 to $200 more for gas per month to get to work.

B)      You are dreaming.  Gas prices would never rise that much.  The Middle East is as politically calm as a millpond. 

NFL Week 7 Picks

Quick Pick format this week.

[HOME TEAM IN CAPS]

 

Titans (-8) vs. CHIEFS

The Chiefs lone win was in Arrowhead.  They had two weeks to prepare.  8 is a lot of points. 

Pick:  Chiefs

 

Chargers (-1) vs. BILLS

What struck me about the Chargers win was not how good they looked, but how bad the Patriots look.

Pick:  Bills

 

Steelers (-10) vs. BENGALS

Man, is this a good line.  I don’t really trust the Steelers giving 10, but the Bengals and Lions seem to be this season’s train wrecks. 

Pick:  Steelers

 

DOLPHINS (2.5) vs. Ravens

Could it be that the Dolphins are a decent-to-good team?

Pick:  Dolphins

 

Cowboys (-7) vs. RAMS

I’ll wait to bury the Cowboys until next week

Pick:  Cowboys

 

BEARS (-3.5) vs. Vikings

I just hope this game doesn’t come down to Lovie Smith’s clock management skills.

Pick:  Bears

 

PANTHERS (-3) vs. Saints

I’ll give Carolina a pass on last week’s game.

Pick:  Panthers

 

GIANTS (-11) vs. 49ers

Did you see how much Nolan was screaming at his team last week.  He looked like a man losing a team and, shortly, his job.

Pick:  Giants

 

TEXANS (-9.5) vs. Lions

Lions = Bad.

Pick:  Texans

 

Jets (-3) vs. RAIDERS

1^st Alternate for 2008 Train Wreck:  The Raiders.

Pick:  Jets

 

REDSKINS (-7.5) vs. Browns

That loss the Rams may really come back to haunt the ‘Skins.

Pick:  Browns

Colts (-1.5) vs. PACKERS

I think the Colts are starting to warm-up.

Pick:  Colts

 

BUCCANEERS (-11) vs. Seahawks

The Seahawks are now losing home games.  This is not good.

Pick:  Buccaneers

 

PATRIOTS (-3) vs. Broncos

Suddenly the Patriots look really bad.

Pick:  Broncos

 

Last Week:  8-6

Season:  51-37-1

NFL Week #6

Quick pick format this week.

[HOME TEAM IN CAPS.]

SAINTS (-7.5) vs. Raiders

I don’t the the Raiders can score enough points.

Pick: Saints

 

COLTS (-4.5) vs. Ravens

I don’t think the Ravens can either.

Pick: Colts

 

JETS (6) vs. Bengals

The Bengals have looked frisky in their last two losses.

Pick:  Bengals

 

BUCCANEERS (-1.5) vs. Panthers

It’s close, but I think the Panthers are the better team.

Pick:  Panthers

 

VIKINGS (-13) vs. Lions

The Vikings should not be favored by 13 over anybody.

Pick: Lions

 

Bears (-2.5) vs. FALCONS

Like the Bills, I’m just not totally sold on the Falcons yet.

Pick:  Bears

 

TEXANS (-3) vs. Dolphins

Not sure I get why the Texans are favored here.

Pick:  Dolphins

 

REDSKINS (-14) vs. Rams

Six weeks ago, this line would have made me laugh.  Now I think it seems like a good one.  The ‘skins may be good, but 14 is a lot of points for anybody to give this season.

Pick:  Rams

 

BRONCOS (-3) vs. Jaguars

Broncos are always tough at home.  Don’t know if the Jag’s offense can keep up.

Pick:  Broncos

 

Eagles (-5) vs. 49ERS

The Eagles are better than this.  At least I think they are.

Pick:  Eagles

 

Cowboys (-5) vs. CARDINALS

The Cowboys have looked increasingly bad.  Watch for an upset in the desert.

Pick:  Cardinals

 

SEAHAWKS (-2) vs. Packers

I know Seattle is tough at home, but if you can’t be atop the NFC West, how can you be favored against anybody?

Pick:  Packers

 

CHARGERS (-6) vs. Patriots

This is an intriguing line.  Everybody thinks the Chargers are going to put the pieces together, but they haven’t.  And I don’t know that they will.  Look at at Norv Turner’s track record;   Year 2 is when he really starts dragging them down.  The Chargers might win this one, but there is no way in hell I’d take ‘em and give 6 to thePatriots.

Pick:  Patriots

 

Giants (-7.5) vs. BROWNS

Ah, the good Browns.  We hardly knew ya.

Pick:  Giants

 

Last Week:  8-5

Season:  43-31-1

Mike Playing the Role of Suzie Orman

It’s financial times like these that get everybody talking about their money.  For the vast majority of people, managing money is a simple exercise in math and logic.  I’m amazed at how bad somepeople are at this task.  Suzie Orman has made a living telling people to do basic math.  Watch her show.  She’s not telling people how to leverage their portfolio to take complex positions in foreign markets.  A lot of her advice is telling people to pay off higher interest loans first, or don’t spend more than you make.  Not rocket science. 

 

I know things are bad, really bad for some folks.  In many cases, they are bad because they made one or more really poor decisions.  So with apologies to Suzie, here’s my free personal finance advice.

 

#1 – SOLID ASSUMPTIONS

When gas shot up earlier this year, I was amazed at the number people who were shocked.  Really?  You didn’t think gas was going to get more expensive over time?  I know the increase was sudden, but I have to tell you, I wasn’t shocked by it.  I was annoyed, but not shocked. 

 

Planning for your financial future requires that you make educated guesses on some things.  So let me take out the guess work for you.  Just think like this:

 

Everything is going to cost more in the future.

 

You heard me.  Everything.

 

Gas is going to cost more.  Food is going to cost more.  Insurance going to cost more.  Clothes, college, everything.  And if you just think like that, planning can get easier.

 

Here’s your second assumption:  Unexpected things are going to happen that are going to cost you money.  Maybe a pipe will burst in your house.  Maybe your car will break down.  Maybe your best friend will have a shotgun wedding in the Bahamas and you’ll really want to go.  Who knows?  But I promise you, over the next 12 months, you’ll need money for something that you hadn’t even though of today.  You’ll need a contigency fund THAT IS NOT A CREDIT CARD for those things.

 

#2  - CREDIT CARD COMPANIES AND BANKS ARE NOT YOUR FRIENDS

They are businesses.  They don’t know you.  They don’t give a crap about you.  They want to make money off you.  And there is nothing wrong with that.  All businesses try to make money off their customers.  But the point here is that a banks and credit card companies will likely offer you more money than you should ever borrow.  Don’t just assume that if it’s offered you can afford it.  Likely, they are offering you enough to keep in debt, and paying them for months and years.

 

#3  - CREDIT CARDS ARE THE ABSOLUTE WORST WAY TO FINANCE SOMETHING

You wouldn’t put your car on a credit card, would you?  (The answer is no.)  Then why would would you take trips, eat meals, and buy electronics that wind up costing you as much as a car on a credit card?  The interest rate is huge.  You are going to wind up paying 15-20% or more for everything you finance using that card if you pay it off over a long period of time.  If you can’t pay for it in full when you purchase it, or get it 0 interest until you can pay it off in full, you should only use a credit card to finance something key to your survival as a last resort.  And a nice pair of jeans isn’t key to your survival. 

 

#4 – DON’T COUNT YOUR CHICKENS BEFORE THEY HATCH

I know several people, smart people, that think their current salary is their low point of income relative to their futures.  Simple put, they think they are going get raises and bonuses every year.  And typically they are right.  When they are, things usually go pretty well.  But when they are wrong, it kills them. 

 

Think about the bad things assumption.   What if you get laid off?  What if your industry tanks?  What if you just get pissed one day and tell your boss to f- off?  All those things happen, to good people, and many of them are entirely outside your control. 

 

#5 – YOUR JOB IS AS SECURE AS YOUR LAST PAYCHECK

Most of us are at-will employees.  That means that at any time , you can quit or your company can decide they no longer require your services.  Personally, I take this literally and to its extreme.  No matter what state my company or the economy,  I consider my job as secure as my last paycheck.  In reality, that’s it.  And I have a plan for what I’m going to do if my job goes away tomorrow.   I keep my resume up-to-date.  I know what companies I’d contact if needed a job.  I know how many months of expenses my savings can cover.  (You should have at least 3 months, and ideally 6.)  I know exactly would luxuries I would drop immediately upon the loss of my job.   I’m good at what I do and I don’t plan to lose my job, but I feel better that I know I’m prepared for exactly that.

 

Take those five guidelines, and you’ll be just fine.  Yeah, it may mean you don’t do or have a lot of things you think you should, but you’ll be living inside your means.  And you’ll feel better when bad time come around.

Come Fly with Me…..

Yeah, I’m a business traveler.   You hear us bitch all the time about travel.   If you don’t travel for work, you probably hate us.  If you do travel for business, you find that complaining about travel is like women bitching about how fat they are;  it somehow bonds us together. 

 

Anyway, I’m going to provide some solid travel advice for the leisure traveler on how to deal with us business travelers.  All for free.  You can thank me later. 

 

Checking In

The airlines are losing money.  They are trying to cut costs by doing two things:  1)  Having you do things that they used to do for you, and 2) Charging you for things that used to be free.  Checking in falls under #1.  You can now do this via the web or via a kiosk at the airport.  There are a couple guidelines here:

1-      If you use the kiosk, I promise they are only using your credit card to ID you.  It doesn’t even have to been the card you used to buy the ticket.  I swear.  Seriously.  Trust me.  So while you are waiting in line for a kiosk, why don’t you go head and pull that credit card out of your purse or wallet.  Have it in your hand when you get there.  We could all save hours if you do this.

2-       Unless you are getting some sort of premium seating (First Class, Plus, or exit row), all the seats suck.  If you sit in the back, you’ll have plenty of open overhead bins for your carry-on bag, but will get off the plane last.  If you sit closer to front, you’ll get off the plane five minutes faster, but you are at risk of losing time by having your carry-on checked.  Sunrise, sunset.  Yin and Yang.  And if you are one of these people that agonize over whether you should be in 21E and 30E, please check in at home.  Please.  Thanks.

3-      You are going to have to show a photo ID to check a bag.  Every time.  I promise.  So why don’t you have that handy with that credit card we talked about earlier.  And keep it handy after you check you bag.  You’ll see why in a minute. 

 

Getting Through Security

To get through security, you will need your boarding pass and a photo ID.  This is the same requirement at every single airport in the US.  So let’s have those items in our hands when we get to the nice TSA person. 

 

Once you clear the boarding pass/ID check, you are going to need to remove all metal and your shoes.  But there is no rule that you can’t do this before you get to security.  You can do it at anytime.  Take off your watch, rings, costume jewelry, and change, and pack them away in a carry-on.  You don’t have to wait until you get you to the metal detector.  You can do it after your meeting, in the cab on the way to the airport, or while you are standing in line.  Think efficiency people.  You’ll also need your boarding pass from this point on.  Keep it handy, like in your pocket, your hand, your bra, looped in your belt, or strapped to your arm. 

 

Contrary to what some people think, there is not going to be an impromptu beauty contest on the plane.  You don’t have to re-deck yourself out in your stunning earrings, bracelets or watches.  If they are in your carry-on, you can just leave them there and move on.  If you must re-deck yourself, you can do that at the gate.  Flying is now a glorified Greyhound bus trip.  We are all just trying to get there.

 

At the Gate

Most of the non-Southwest airlines board by zone now.  It’s on your boarding pass.  When your zone is called, you can board.  If you are zone 11, but at the gate, I promise they are not going to leave without you.  You do not need to stand in a ready position at the gate blocking everybody in lower zones.  Just wait for your zone, and then get on the plane.  It’s really that simple.

 

Taking your seat

If you need to retrieve something from your carry-on to have with you during your flight, such as an IPOD, magazine, or book, federal regulations allow you to have that in your hand or pocket as you get on the plane.  You don’t have to wait until get to your seat to stop, put down your bags, rummage for your copy of “People,” and set it in your seat.  If your hands or pockets are full, tuck the magazine or book in the back waistband of your pants or skirt.  Seriously.  You can do this.  Totally legal.

 

Charges for bags, Cokes, and other stuff that used to be free

Again, most airlines are losing money, so they are charging for stuff that used to be free.  Checked bag fees range from $25 to $50, and soft drinks and snacks may cost as much as $2. It tell you this so you won’t be surprised.  Please do not hold up the line or the stewardess service by bitching or making a big deal about this.  I know it sucks.  The airlines know it sucks.  But I promise the guy at the counter or the flight attendant did not enact this policy.  If they had the power to do that they would probably use that same power to make sure they weren’t working the 7:50 flight to Raleigh-Durham.

 

Kids

There is a maximum of two people on the plane who procreated Junior, so the rest of the 100+ passengers don’t really deserve to be treated to your kids screaming, singing, or wailing.  Some of us like to sleep to ease the pain of wedging our 6-2 frame in a seat made for 5-5 teenage girl.  Look, kids are fine but some kids aren’t made to fly.  If you have a hyper crier or screamer or a kid that likes to kick or slam things, could you just have grandma come and see you?  It would be really nice, and you’ll probably save yourself the cost of one ticket.   Thanks.  [NOTE:  Some of you think that everybody is soooooo nice when this happens.  They are being abnormally nice to avoid their violent rage.  Trust me, they hate you and they really hate your kid.]

 

In-Flight Etiquette

Here are some quick rules:

1-      If the flight departs before 8:00am or after 8:00pm local time, many people are trying to sleep.  Please let us sleep.  We probably need it.  Please do not have loud work conversations, read loudly to your kid, or talk about the kick ass trip you just had.

2-      If the flight is less than 90 minutes, there is no reason for you to use the lavatory barring severe intestinal illness.  Please pee before you get onboard.  If your kid couldn’t hold it for 90 minutes, you’d yell at him.  Or you should yell at him.  Why should you be held to a lesser standard?  If you refuse to heed this advice, at least grab an aisle seat when you spend 20 minutes analyzing your seat choice at the kiosk.

3-      Once the flight lands, please do not fire up your cell phone for a loud conversation with work or your spouse.   I promise you are not so important that the world cannot wait 15 minutes for news of your arrival.  If you were, you wouldn’t be flying coach on AirTran.  If you absolutely feel the need to share your triumphant arrival with others, send a text message. 

NFL Week #5

We are roughly to the quarter pole of the 2008 NFL Season. While it’s too early to claim victory of defeat on my bold preseason predictions, we have learned some things.  But we have not learned as much as we think we have learned.  Because of all the hours of coverage, and literally thousands of talking heads, the NFL is an overreaction league.  Lose a game and you suck.  Win a game and you are headed to Tampa.  So let’s examine some common “thoughts” that have been tossed around.

 

The Buffalo Bills are for real:  Um…yeah, I’d hold off on preselling those first round playoff game tickets just yet.  They beat a Seattle team that were taking resumes for wide receiver.  They beat two teams whose coaches were fired earlier this week.  And they beat a Jacksonville team that basically had to retool their offensive line right before Week #1.  In the next 6 weeks, they travel to Arizona and get the Jets and Chargers at home.  If they fall behind, like they did against the Raiders and Rams, it won’t be so easy to get back into that game.  If they are 7-2 after Week #10, I’ll say they are for real.  Until then, I’m not falling into the Bills-giving-7 trap. 

 

The Jets will improve as they let Brett be Brett:  Okay, Brett threw 6 TD passes last weekend.  That was impressive.  The Jets also gave up 35 to a bad Rams team that turned the ball over roughly 18 times.  They gave up 48 to San Diego.  That’s a lot of points.  If they are going to just turn Farve loose, he’s just about as likely to give you 4 TDs as 4 picks.  They’ve got to stop somebody other than the Week #1 Dolphins and Brady-less Pats.  Be careful here….

 

Kerry Collins was the missing ingredient to the Titans success:  Of the 3, I actually kinda buy this one.  Seems to me the Titans are working on the Ravens Super Bowl model:  Limit every oppoent to 17-10 points, don’t turn the ball over, and hopefully get some defensive points to put you over the top.  And their defense doesn’t really have any high-powered offenses left on the schedule.  They’ve got Indy twice yet, but otherwise their schedule is very favorable.  I like the Titans.

 

The Cowboys are the favorites in the NFC:  This idea showed some cracks last week.  I’ve felt since the first episode of “Hard Knocks” that this team is just a little too in love with themselves.   I sense there is a certain level of focus missing.  They have enough talent to put up 50 on anybody.  They have enough egos to focus on the wrong things and get in their own way.  (See Week #4 game plan vs. the Redskins.)  They have three weeks where they should get back on track before a brutal stretch vs. Tampa Bay, at the Giants and at Washington.  That’ll be the test.

 

Mike is one helluva handicapper:  Slow down there, Chief.  It’s early yet, and most of the my success was in last week.  There are some tough one’s this week.  Let’s see how I look around Week #9.

 

With no further ado, let’s look at the Week #5 picks

[HOME TEAM IN CAPS]

 

Colts (-3) vs. TEXANS

The Texans have given the Colts fits in Houston in the past.  I think that streak ends Sunday.  The Colts are coming off a bye week, while the Texans are coming off a tough and physical loss at Jacksonville. 

Pick:  Colts

 

Titans (-2.5) vs. RAVENS

The Ravens should have beaten the Steelers.  But I don’t think the Steelers are all that good.

Pick: Titans

 

Chargers (-6.5) vs. DOLPHINS

Am I going to take 3 road favorites in a row?  Yes I am!  I see this one as a shootout, and the Chargers score the last touchdown to win.

Pick:  Chargers

 

PANTHERS (-10) vs. Chiefs

I don’t trust any team in the NFL giving 10 right now. 

Pick:  Chiefs

 

EAGLES (-6) vs. Redskins

The Redskins are starting to believe.  The Eagles are beat up.  They may win, but no cover.

Pick:  Redskins

 

Bears (-3.5) vs. LIONS

I see no reason to pick the Lions.  None whatsoever.  Make that 4 road favorites.

Pick:  Bears

 

Falcons (NL) vs. PACKERS

The rule for this blog is NL = No Pick.

 

GIANTS (-7.5) vs. Seahawks

I still don’t know what to make of this Giants team.  Seemed like they were just playing to take a few days off against the Bengals two weeks ago.  The Seahawks are slowly getting healthy.  Seems like too many points for me. 

Pick:  Seahawks

 

BRONCOS (-3.5) vs. Buccaneers

The Broncos are typically pretty solid at home, but they  are giving up way, way too many points.  I think the Broncos might need a last minute field goal to bring this one home.

Pick:  Buccaneers

 

Patriots (-3) vs. 49ERS

No way 6 road favorites cover.  No way.  The 49ers win this on, Randy Moss goes beserk, and let the good times roll. 

Pick:  49ers

 

CARDINALS (-1) vs. Buffalo

I don’t’ know if the Bills can come back if they fall behind early again.

Pick:  Cardinals

 

COWBOYS (-17.5) vs. Bengals

I don’t trust any team in this league giving more than 10.

Pick:  Bengals

 

JAGUARS (-3.5) vs. Steelers

I just don’t think the Steelers are that good.   They could easily be 0-4 right now.

Pick:  Jaguars

 

SAINTS (-3) vs. Vikings

I can’t figure either of these teams out.  I think the Vikings are less beat up.

Pick:  Vikings

 

Last Week:  9-4

Season:  35-26-1